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Flemington, NJ, October 21, 2008 – A new national study among 328 self-reported Democrats, Republicans and Independents revealed that a new anti-McCain ad by Barack Obama increased the intensity of support for Independents likely to vote for Obama and decreased the intensity of support for Independents likely to vote for McCain. The ad had little effect on either candidate’s favorability ratings.
The study was conducted by HCD Research and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) on October 18-19, to obtain Americans’ perceptions of the new ad by Barack Obama which claims that McCain’s policies are similar to President Bush’s policies.
The ad earned Barack Obama a Political Communications Impact Score (PCIS) of 15.8 while John McCain received a score of 5.1, resulting in a net score of 10.7 for Barack Obama. The scores can be compared to a mean score of 8.5 for previously tested Obama ads and 7.8 for previously tested McCain ads. To date, the total mean score for all previously tested ads is 8.1.
Among the Findings:
Independent’s change in intensity of support for candidate Pre/Post Veiwing ad:
If respondent indicated they will vote for McCain:
“Which of the following best describes your likelihood to vote for John McCain in the 2008 Presidential Election?”
| Pre | Post | ||
| Definitely Voting for McCain | 58% | 50% | |
| Strongly Leaning McCain | 26% | 29% | |
| Somewhat Leaning McCain | 16% | 21% | |
If respondent indicated they will vote for Obama:
“Which of the following best describes your likelihood to vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election?”
| Pre | Post | ||
| Definitely Voting for Obama | 64% | 71% | |
| Strongly Leaning Obama | 34% | 25% | |
| Somewhat Leaning Obama | 2% | 4% | |
Favorability for Candidates Pre/Post Viewing of the Ad:
| Obama | Pre | Post |
| All Responders | 56% | 53% |
| Democrats | 85% | 85% |
| Republicans | 15% | 13% |
| Independents | 65% | 61% |
| McCain | Pre | Post |
| All Responders | 46% | 43% |
| Democrats | 17% | 11% |
| Republicans | 83% | 82% |
| Independents | 36% | 36% |
The PCIS is a metric scoring system designed to gauge the effectiveness of political communications by generating a score for each candidate to monitor changes in voter perceptions. The PCIS score is derived from the change in voters’ support and the extent that the support shifts. To view scores and results of recent studies go to: http://www.mediacurves.com/PCIS/
While viewing the video, participants indicated their levels of believability by moving their mouse from left to right on a continuum. The responses were recorded in quarter-second intervals and reported in the form of curves. The participants’ emotions were measured using the Ayer Emotion Battery. Participants were also asked pre- and post-viewing questions. To view believability curves and detailed results go to: www.mediacurves.com.
The Media Curves web site provides the media and general public with a venue to view Americans’ perceptions of popular and controversial media events and advertisements.
Editors/Reporters: For more information on the study, or to speak with Glenn Kessler, president and CEO, HCD Research or Chris Borick, Ph.D., director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, please contact Vince McGourty, HCD Research, at (908) 483-9121 or (vince.mcgourty@hcdi.net).
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