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The "Take"

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Please help me...I can't stand it anymore...There is a difference between Causation and Association

So, I was watching Campbell Brown on CNN. She leads off a story with "Negative Ads work, the Proof is In". They break to a commercial.

Now for the story. She concludes that the McCain Celebrity ads have worked and moved McCain up in the polls. Actually, I thought he moved up in the polls because:

• Obama was on vacation for a week
• Russia invaded Georgia
• There is a slight relief in gas prices
• Obama hasn't run issue ads and most of the ads he runs don't depict him ...just a voice over
• McCain did a better job on Rick Warren's Church Interviews

But no! It is because negative ads work and the McCain side ran the Celebrity ad.

Folks like Campbell Brown would like you to believe Hillary won New Hampshire because 2 days before the primary she wept, or that the 3AM ad caused Obama's defeat in Texas, they would like you to believe that a single ad has moved the American Voting Public. Now it can happen. Swiftboat, Michael J. Fox stem cell were both blockbuster ads that changed elections. But, both of these ads tested well. The "Celebrity" series fell flat in quantitative studies of voters. None the less, with no evidence, the media attributes changes in polls to these dumb ads.

Some thoughts:

• The 3AM ad didn't test well. The Clinton win in Texas probably had nothing to do with the ad. She was ahead in the polls and won...independent of the ad.
• The media wouldn't know if Hillary's "weeping" impacted anything. Anyway I didn't see a tear...I
heard a slightly emotional voice probably from exhaustion.

The media looks at Association as Causation. Don't they know the difference? Don t they care? Do they believe Americans will believe that if A happens, any A, when B happens if must be caused by A?

There are so many environmental things that impact us, to think that 1 stupid ad that you would only know about if you watched the likes of Campbell Brown every night (I do but the ratings don't suggest that most of America does) is changing the polls.

So, please media folks, learn the difference between causative and associative. There is a big difference. Most ads don't change polls unless there is perceived truth and based on quantitative research the Celebrity ad was a loser...fun but a loser and I go with the data...not Campbell Brown's opinion.

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RE: Please help me...I can't stand it anymore...There is a difference between Causation and Association

by sunyata (User #211725) on Wednesday, August 20, 2008 @ 3:28:00 PM (#878)

I agree. On a related point, the extensive coverage of the recent "discovery" of bigfoot story by most major media outlets, which (not surprisingly) turned out to be a complete hoax is enough to cast doubt on the editorial judgment of these news organizations. Now, if you will excuse me, I need to feed my Chupacabra before she goes looking for food down by the lake and gets devoured by the Loch Ness Monster.